Drought Monitoring in Northern Nigeria Using Four (4) Indices.

  • Adeyemi Joshua OLASORE Federal University of Technology, Akure
  • Adebayo Ebenezer OLAGBAIYE
  • Taiwo Adedayo AJAYI
  • Peter Oluwatobi ALABI
Keywords: Analysis, Drought, Trend, Northern Nigeria

Abstract

Drought can generally be defined as the extreme persistence of precipitation deficit over a region for a specific period. Eight study locations were picked from the Sudano-Sahelian agro-ecological zones of Nigeria (Bauchi, Bida. Kaduna, Kano, Maiduguri. Sokoto, Nguru, and Katsina) from 1981 to 2015. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index- Thornthwaite (SPEI.T), Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index-Hargreaves (SPEI-H) and Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index-penman (SPEI-P) were used as the primary indicators of meteorological and agricultural droughts. The correlation coefficient shows an increasing correlation among the indices with increasing time scale, with SPI and SPEI-H having the highest correlation. The regression analysis shows a monotonic increasing relationship between indices while SPI vs SPEI-H has the highest correlation coefficient. The number of drought occurrences captured by the indices also increases with increasing time scale with SPEI-P detecting the highest number of drought events. All the drought indices reflect the historical drought periods between 1982-1989, 1992-2002, and 2008-2011. SPI, SPEI-P, and SPEI-H detected similar duration and intensity for the historical drought between 1982 and 1989 while SPEI-P showed the highest intensity and duration for the historical droughts between 1992 and 2002 and between 2008 and 2011.Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) evaluated that SPEI-P was more robust and sophisticated, SPI and SPEI-P had the same score for tractability while SPEI-H being the least tractable, and SPI had the highest for transparency and extendibility.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Abaje, I.B., Ati, O.F. and Iguisi, E.O. (2012a). “Changing Climatic Scenarios and Strategies for drought Adaptation and Mitigation in the Sudano- Sahelian Ecological Zone of Nigeria”. In: M.A. Iliya and I.M. Dankani, eds. Climate Change and Sustainable Development in Nigeria. Ibadan: Crown F. Publishers. Ch.5.

Adefolalu, D.O. (1986).“Further Aspects of Sahelian Drought as Evident from Rainfall Regime of Nigeria”. Archives for Meteorology, Geophysics and Bioclimatology, Series B, 36, 277-295.

Adeoye, K.B. (1986). “An Evaluation of Drought Incidence and Hazard in Northern Nigeria”. Paper Presented at the 22nd Annual Conference of the Agricultural Society of Nigeria, Zaria 1st 3rd September 1986.

Alley, WM., (1984). “The Palmer Drought Severity Index: limitations and assumptions”. Journalof Climate and Applied Meteorology, 23: 1100 - 1109.

Apeldoorn, G. J. Van. (1981). “Perspectives on Drought and Famines in Nigeria”. George Allen and Unwin Ltd, London. 184p.

Beran, M., and Rodier, J.A. (1985). “Hydrological aspects of drought. Studies and reports in hydrology 39. UNESCO-WMO, Paris.

Correia, F., Santos, M.A., and Rodrigues, R. (1994). “Reliability in regional drought studies”. Water Resources Engineering Risk Assessment. Porto. Karras. NATO ASI Series, 29: 43–62.

Doesken, N.J., McKee, T.B., and Kleist, J. (1991). “Development of a surface watersupply index for the Western United States”, Climatology Report Number 91-3, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.

Dracup, J.A., Lee, K.S., and Paulson, E.G., Jr. (1980). “On the definition of droughts”. Water Resources Research, American Geophysical Union, 16 (2): 297–302. doi:10.1029/WR016i002p00297.

Drought Adaptation and Mitigation in the Sudano- Sahelian Ecological Zone of Nigeria. In: M.A. Iliya and I.M. Dankani, eds. Climate Change and Sustainable Development in Nigeria. Ibadan: Crown F. Publishers. Ch.5.

Edwards DC, and McKee TB. (1997). “Characteristics of 20th Century Drought in the United States at Multiple Scales”. Atmospheric Sciences Paper, No. 634, May, 1- 30.

Gibbs, W.J. and Maher, J.V., 1967. Rainfall Deciles as drought indicators, Bureau of Meteorology Bulletin No. 4, Commonwealth of Australia, Melbourne, Australia.

Glantz, M.H and Katz, R.W. (1986). Anatomy of rainfall index. Monthly Weather Review, 114, 764-771.

González, J., and Valdés, J. (2006). “New drought frequency index: Definition and comparative performance analysis”. Water Resources Research. 42 (11): W11421. doi:10.1029/2005WR004308

Hayes, M.J., Wilhelmi, O.V., and Knutson, C.L. (2004). “Reducing drought risk: bridging theory and practice”. Natural Hazards Reviews. 5 (2): 106–113. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)15276988(2004)5:2(106).

Heddinghaus, T.R. and Sabol, P., (1991). “A review of the Palmer Drought Severity Index and where do we go from here”, in Seventh Conference on Applied Climatology, Salt Lake City, Utah,USA, 242–246. indices. Journalof Climatology. 5, 655-664.

Iloeje, N.P. (1982). “A New Geography of Nigeria”. London: Longman.

James Stagge, Lena M. Tallaksen, Chong-Yu Xu and Henny A. J. Van Lanen(2014). “Standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI): Sensitivity to potential evapotranspiration model and parameters”. Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions, 367-375.

Karl, T.R. and Knight, R.W., (1985). “Atlas of monthly Palmer hydrological drought indices (1931 –1983) for the contiguous United States”, Asheville, N.C., USA; National Climatic Data Center (Historical Climatology Series 3–7).

Keyantash, J. A., and Dracup, J. A. (2002). “The quantification of drought: An evaluation of drought indices”. Bull. Am. Meteorol.Soc. 83(8): 1167–1180.

McKee, T.B., Doesken, N.J., and Kleist, J. (1993). “The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales”. In Proceedings of the 8thConference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, Calif. 17– 22 January 1993. American Meteorological Society.

Narasimhan, B., and Srinivasan, R. (2005). “Development and evaluation of Soil Moisture DeficitIndex (SMDI) and Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) for agricultural drought monitoring”. Agric. For. Meteorol. 133 (1–4): 69–88. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2005.07.012.

NDMC. (2006b). “What is drought? Understanding and Defining Drought”. National Climatic Data Center. Nigeria. Archives for Meteorology, Geophysics and Bioclimatology, Series B, 36, 277-295.

Nyong, A., F. Adesina and B. O. Elasha. (2007). “The Value of Indigenous Knowledge in ClimateChange Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies in the African Sahel”. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 12 (5):787-797.

Odekunle, T., (2008). “Determining rainfall onset and retreat dates in Nigeria”. Journal of Human Ecology. 16, 239- 247.

Oguntoyinbo, J.S., and Richards, P. (1977).“The Extent and Intensity of 1969-1973 Drought in Nigeria”.

Oladipo, E. O., (1985).“A comparative performance analysis of three meteorological drought indices”. Journal of Climatology. 5, 655-664.

Oladipo, E. O.(1993). “Some Statistical Characteristics of Drought Area Variations in the SavannaRegion of Nigeria”, Theor. Appl. Climatol. 50, 147–155.

Palmer, W.C. (1965). “Meteorological drought”. Weather Bureau Research Paper No. 45, US Department of Commerce, Washington, DC. 58 pp.

Palmer, W.C., (1968). “Keeping track of crop moisture conditions, nationwide: The new-crop moisture index”. Weatherwise 21 (4), 156-161.

Quiring, S.M. (2009). “Monitoring drought: An evaluation of meteorological drought indices”. Geography Compass, 3(1): 64–88. doi:10.1111/j.1749-8198.2008.00207.x.

Redmond, K.T., (1991). “Climate monitoring and indices, in Proc. Seminar on Drought Management and Planning”. D. A. Wilhite, D. A. Wood, and P. A. Kay, Eds, Lincoln, NE, USA, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, 29–33.

Saaty, T. L. (1980). “The Analytic Hierarchy Process”. McGraw-Hill Book Co. New York.

Saaty, T. L.( 1986). “Axiomatic foundation of the analytic hierarchy process”. Management Sci.32 841–855.

Saaty, T. L. (1990). An exposition of the AHP in reply to the paper “Remarks on the Analytic Hierarchy Process.” Management Sci. 36(3) 259–268.

Shafer, B., and Dezman, L. (1982). “Development of a Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) to assess the severity of drought conditions in snowpack runoff areas”. Proceedings of theWestern Snow Conference, pp. 164–175.

Sonmez, F.K., Komuscu, A.U., Erkan, A. and Turgu, E., (2005). “An analysis of spatial and temporal dimension of drought vulnerability in Turkey using the Standardized Precipitation Index”. Natural Hazards 35 (2), 243-264.

Thornthwaite, C. W., and Mather, J. R. (1955). “The water balance”. Climatology, 8: 1–104.

Thornthwaite, C.W. (1948). “An approach toward a rational classification of climate”. Geog. Rev. 38 (1): 55–94.

Tsakiris, G., and Vangelis, H. (2002). “Establishing a drought index incorporating evapotranspiration”. European Water, 9 (10): 3–11.

Tsakiris, G., and Vangelis, H. (2004). “Towards a drought watch system based on spatial SPI”. Water Resources Management, 18 (1): 1–12.

Tsakiris, G., and Vangelis, H. (2005). “Establishing a drought index incorporating evapotranspiration”. European Water, 9 (10): 3–11.

Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Beguería, S., and López-Moreno, J.I. (2010). “A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index”. Journal of Climatology. 23 (7): 1696–1718. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1.

Wilhite, D.A. (1993). “The enigma of drought. Drought Assessment, Management, and Planning: Theory and Case Studies”. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, Ma

Wilhite, D.A. (2004). “Drought as a natural hazard; In International Perspectives on Natural Disasters: Occurrence, Mitigation, and Consequences”. Edited by J.P. Stoltman, J. Lidstone, and L.M. Dechano. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.

Wilhite, D.A., and Glantz, M. (1987). “Understanding the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions”. Water Int. 10 (3): 111–120. doi:10.1080/02508068508686328.

Willeke, G., Hosking, J.R.M., Wallis, J.R. and Guttman, N.B., (1994). “The national drought atlas”.U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Institute for Water ResourcesReport 94-NDS-4. [Available from U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, Casey Building, 7701 Telegraph Rd.,Alexandria, VA 22315-3868.]

Yevjevich, V. (1967). “An objective approach to definitions and investigations of continental hydrologic droughts”. Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colo.

Yevjevich, V., (1978). “An objective approach to definitions and investigations of continental hydrologicdroughts”.Hydrology Paper 23, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.

Yilmaz, B. and Harmancioglu, N. (2010) “Multi-Criteria Decision Making for Water Resource Management: A Case Study of the Gediz River Basin, Turkey”. Water SA., 36, 563–576.

Published
2021-01-07
How to Cite
OLASORE, A. J., OLAGBAIYE, A. E., AJAYI, T. A., & ALABI, P. O. (2021). Drought Monitoring in Northern Nigeria Using Four (4) Indices. International Journal for Research in Applied Sciences and Biotechnology, 8(1), 13-31. https://doi.org/10.31033/ijrasb.8.1.3